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Monday, January 4, 2016

The Indian retail industry 2020

The Indian retail industry is one of the fastest growing in the world. Retail industry in India is expected to grow to US$ 1.3 trillion by 2020, registering a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.7 per cent over 2015-20. 
 
India is the fifth largest preferred retail destination globally. The country is among the highest in the world in terms of per capita retail store availability. India’s retail sector is experiencing exponential growth, with retail development taking place not just in major cities and metros, but also in Tier-II and Tier-III cities. Healthy economic growth, changing demographic profile, increasing disposable incomes, urbanisation, changing consumer tastes and preferences are the other factors driving growth in the organised retail market in India. 
 
India’s population is taking to online retail in a big way. The online retail market is expected to grow from US$ 6 billion to US$ 70 billion during FY15-FY20.
 
Increasing participation from foreign and private players has given a boost to Indian retail industry. India’s price competitiveness attracts large retail players to use it as a sourcing base. Global retailers such as Walmart, GAP, Tesco and JC Penney are increasing their sourcing from India and are moving from third-party buying offices to establishing their own wholly-owned/wholly-managed sourcing and buying offices.
 
The Government of India has introduced reforms to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in retail industry. The government has approved 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail and increased FDI limit to 100 per cent (from 51 per cent) in single brand retail.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

The Debt World


The world is still addicted to debt. Global debt levels show no sign of fading - despite promises made after the financial crisis to reduce borrowing. A new report by McKinsey shows governments, households, companies and banks owe $57 trillion more than they did in 2007, or 17 per cent of GDP. Ireland, Singapore, Greece, Portugal and China have seen their debts grow the most - while only five of the big economies managed to reduce their debt burden.

"That has to be concerning, because excessive levels of debt were identified as one of the main causes of the last crisis." - Edward Hadas, Reuters' economics editor

Governments have borrowed heavily to fund bailouts and help boost demand in the recession. Household debt too has risen.

McKinsey warns seven countries may face 'potential vulnerabilities'- because of it. It's also a concern in China, where almost half of household debt is linked to real estate. Since 2007, borrowing in China has quadrupled. It's now 282 percent of GDP - almost double what it was.

"I think that debts do cause crises. And I think China's very vulnerable. Fortunately the Chinese economy's somewhat isolated. So a Chinese debt crisis is unlikely to travel too far around the world. But one has to be bit worried, especially with interest rates so low around the world it seems like there's a real possibility that things could get much worse, very fast."  - Edward Hadas, Reuters' economics editor

Greece knows all too well the pain a mounting debt pile can bring. But it may be reassuring for the country, if no one else, to know that it is not alone.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

The GREAT ECONOMY COLLAPSE - 2015. Is coming...?

Introduction

So many of the exact same patterns that preceded the great financial collapse of 2008 are happening again right before our very eyes, history accurately appears to be repeating. The media and global politicians are promising people that everything is going to be okay somehow, and that seems to be good enough for most people. But the SIGNS that another MASSIVE FINANCIAL CRISIS is on the horizon ARE EVERYWHERE. All you have to do is open up your eyes and look at them.

Bill Gross - an American financial manager and author who is considered by many to be the number one authority on government bonds on the entire planet says in his latest January Investment Outlook:

“When the year is done (i.e., 2014), there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over.”

The question arises to me that, why Gross and other financial experts being “so negative” right now? The answer is, they are able to see the same patterns that they saw in early 2008 unfolding again.

Are we heading directly toward another major financial crisis?

Here are these patterns that preceded the last financial crisis that are happening again right now…

1. A really bad start to the year for the stock market. 

During the first three trading days of 2015, the S&P 500 was down a total of 2.73 percent. There are only two times in history when it has declined by more than three percent during the first three trading days of a year. Those years were 2000 and 2008, and in both years we witnessed enormous stock market declines.

2. Very uneven financial market behavior. 

In general, calm markets tend to go up. When markets get uneven, they tend to go down. For example, the chart below shows how the Dow Jones Industrial Average behaved from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2008. As you can see, the Dow was very calm as it rose throughout 2006 and most of 2007, but it got very uneven as 2008 played out.

Experts say that, when we start to see big ups and big downs in the market, that is a sign of big trouble ahead. That is why it is so alarming that global financial markets have begun to become quite choppy in recent weeks.

3. A substantial decline for 10 year bond yields: 

When investors get scared, there tends to be a “flight to safety” as investors moves their money to safer investments. We saw this happen in 2008, and that is happening again right now.
In fact, according to Bloomberg, global 10 year bond yields have already dropped to low levels that are absolutely unprecedented and Bloomberg states as “That’s not GOOD NEWS”.

4. The price of oil crashes: 

The price of U.S. oil has dipped below $48 a barrel. But back in June, it was sitting at $106 at one point. As the chart below demonstrates, there is only one other time in history when the price of oil has declined by more than $50 in less than a year.

The only other time there has been an oil price collapse of this magnitude we experienced the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression shortly thereafter.

5. A dramatic drop in the number of oil and gas rigs in operation: 

Right now, oil and gas rigs are going out of operation at a frightening pace. During the fourth quarter of 2014, 93 oil and gas rigs were idled, and it is being projected that another 200 will shut down this quarter. As this Business Insider article demonstrates, this is also something that happened during the financial crisis of 2008 and it continued well into 2009.

6. The price of gasoline takes a huge tumble: 

Millions of Americans and global people are celebrating that the price of gasoline has plummeted in recent weeks. But they were also celebrating when it happened back in 2008 as well. But of course it turned out that there was really nothing to celebrate in 2008. In short order, millions of Americans lost their jobs and their homes. So the chart below is definitely not “good news”…


7. A broad range of industrial commodities begin to decline in price: 

When industrial commodities go down in price, which is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. And just like in 2008, that is what we are watching unfold on the global stage right now. The following is an excerpt from a recent CNBC article…

“From nickel to soybean oil, plywood to sugar, global commodity prices have been on a steady decline as the world’s economy has lost momentum.”

8. A junk bond crash: 

Just like in 2008, we are witnessing the beginnings of a junk bond collapse. High yield debt related to the energy industry is on the bleeding edge of this crash, but in recent weeks we have seen investors start to bail out of a broad range of junk bonds. Check out this chart and this chart in addition to the chart below…



9. Global inflation slows down significantly:

When economic activity slows down, so does inflation. This is something that we witnessed in 2008, this is also something that is happening once again. In fact, it is being projected that global inflation is about to fall to the lowest level that we have seen since World War II…

“Increases in the prices of goods and services in the world’s largest economies are slowing dramatically. Analysts are predicting that inflation will fall below 2pc in all of the countries that make up the G7 group of advanced nations this year – the first time that has happened since before the Second World War.

Indeed, Japan was the only G7 country whose inflation rate was above 2pc last year. And economists believe that was because its government increased sales tax which had the effect of artificially boosting prices.”

10. A crisis in investor confidence:

Just prior to the last financial crisis, the confidence that investors had that we would be able to avoid a stock market collapse in the next six months began to decline significantly. And guess what? That is something else that is happening once again NOW

“Investor confidence that the US will avoid a stock-market crash in the next six months has dropped dramatically since last spring. The Yale School of Management publishes a monthly Crash Confidence Index. The index shows the proportion of investors who believe we will avoid a stock-market crash in the next six months.”

“Yale points out that “crash confidence reached its all-time low, both for individual and institutional investors, in early 2009, just months after the Lehman crisis, reflecting the turmoil in the credit markets and the strong depression fears generated by that event, and is plausibly related to the very low stock market valuations then.”

SO BE PREPARED...

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Business Analytics & Enterprise Software – US


Industry Size

Revenue                       :           $28bn  

Annual Growth             :           3.3% 2009-2014

Expected to Grow         :           4.1% (Average Annually – till 2019)  

Employment                :           36,703 

Businesses                  :           603



Companies in this industry develop and distribute business analytics, customer relationship management (CRM), business intelligence (BI) and other enterprise-oriented software. Operators may also provide consulting and technical support related to this software. This industry does not include publishers of productivity or database software or manufacturers of computer hardware.

Industry Analysis & Trends
The Business Analytics & Enterprise Software Publishing industry will continue to grow throughout the next five years, as new technologies in business analytics software drive demand. Large and small businesses will look to the industry for software, including customer relationship management and enterprise resource planning applications. Additionally, large companies will acquire smaller competitors to expand their portfolios, and as a result, revenue per establishment will climb.
Adding new products and reaching out to new markets, this industry is in the growth phase of its life cycle. Enterprise software only grows more useful when businesses use information technology (IT) more heavily. Industry growth thus far has been primarily concentrated in software sales to large businesses and organizations with sophisticated IT infrastructure. IT infrastructure, such as database software, is increasingly becoming a business necessity even for small businesses, which will drive growth during the next five years. Industry value added is expected to increase 4.1% on average annually during the 10 years to 2019, higher than the annualized 2.7% GDP growth during the same time period.

Industry Products
·         Statistical analysis software
·         CRM software
·         ERP software
·         SCM software
·         Predictive analysis software
·         Collaboration software
·         Other performance management software
 
Industry Activities
·         Business intelligence software publishing
·         Business analytics software publishing
·         Enterprise resource planning software publishing
·         Customer relationship management software publishing

 

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Indian Insurance Companies - IT Spending in 2014

Indian insurance companies will spend Rs 121 billion on IT products and services in 2014, a 12 percent increase over 2013, according to Gartner, Inc. This forecast includes spending by insurers on internal IT (including personnel), hardware, software, external IT services and telecommunications.

The Rs 12 billion software segment is forecast to be the fastest external segment, growing at 18 percent in 2014 overall, lifted by accelerated growth of insurance-specific software.

IT services, the biggest spending segment for the insurance industry at 40 billion rupees in 2014, will continue to realise robust growth of 16 percent. Category leaders are business process outsourcing (BPO) at 25 percent and consulting – much of which relates to these insurance-specific application investments – at 21 percent. 

“Insurers in India are getting serious about their core insurance processes, especially where they help increase insurer penetration of the market,” said Derry Finkeldey, principal analyst at Gartner.

 “While internal spending is also increasing, Indian insurers have been quick to turn to the competitive technology provider sector in India for guidance and delivery.”

Monday, January 27, 2014

Sports Video Analysis - Market Study




  Sports Video Analysis




1.    Introduction

S
ports organizations are increasingly becoming aware of the need to incorporate analytics into their decision making processes and on the other side sports coaching industry is experiencing growth as intensive sports instruction demand surges and one of the major aims of sports video analysis is to provide assistance for training. Coaches and athletes are using the medium more and more to measure and correct technique, and to analyze team and individual performances.
In Sport, systems have been developed to provide a high level of task, performance and physiological data to coaches, teams and players. The objective is to improve individual and team performance and/or analyse opposition patterns of play to give tactical advantage. The repetitive and patterned nature of sports games lend themselves to video analysis in that over a period of time real patterns, trends or habits can be discerned. In the past decades, extensive research efforts have been devoted to sports video analysis and applications due to its wide viewer-ship and high commercial potentials.

2.    US Sports Market Size

Sports are big business. Combined, the “Big 4” leagues in America, the National Football League (NFL), National Basketball Association (NBA), the National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball (MLB), bring in about $24 billion in revenue during a typical year, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.  U.S. sporting equipment sales at retail sporting goods stores are roughly $41 billion yearly, according to U.S. government statistics. 
“A reasonable estimate of the total U.S. sports market would be $400 to $435 billion yearly” –
Plunkett Research, Ltd
Official U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures as of 2011 found that there were 12,630 professional American athletes plus 193,810 coaches and scouts, along with 15,630 umpires, referees and officials. Meanwhile, the data showed that 489,200 Americans work in fitness centers, 39,700 work in snow skiing facilities, 68,300 work in bowling centers and 342,300 work at country clubs or golf courses. 

3.    Sports Video Analysis Potential  

Sports video analysis has been attracting more and more attention due to the potential commercial benefits, entertaining functionalities and mass audience requirements. However, more keenly than ever, the audience desire professional insights into the games. The coach and the players demand automatic tactics analysis and performance evaluation with the aid of multimedia information retrieval technologies.
“Sports coaching overall (not just private) is a $3-7 billion global market, without including fitness training” – CoachUp founder, Jordan Fliegel
According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment of coaches is expected to grow 29% by 2020, much faster than the average for all occupations and the usage of the technology is on high demand will be predicted to grow in parallel as larger overall population will continue to participate in organized sports for entertainment, recreation, and physical conditioning, boosting demand for coaches and sports instructors. 100 million kids and adults who spend $6 billion on sports coaching in the U.S. alone is one of the major drivers for the growth in this industry.

4.    Prominent Players

 



 

5.    Video Analysis Apps for Sports